Transactions are down and house prices have continued falling
House prices fell for the third successive month in May, according to the Nationwide. This is the first time they have reported three monthly falls in a row since 2009. House prices fell -0.2% in May, according to their index. In the last three months average UK house prices have fallen by a total of -0.9%.
Activity levels have also declined, in line with our forecasts. The lull in transaction volumes last summer, following the stamp duty changes in April, make the annual numbers look particularly weak. Accounting for this effect, national transaction volumes have fallen back to 2015 levels but this hides a regional variation in which volumes are below 2015 levels in London but higher in Wales. The RICS survey shows more surveyors reporting falls in buyer enquiries than rises for first time since last summer, following the EU referendum.