Briefing Note: Forecasting 2017/18 Housing Supply

Housebuilding growth could stall as London supply slowdown hits national output

Delivery of new homes in England for 2017/18 is unlikely to be significantly higher than the previous year, despite planning permissions reaching record levels. Our forecast model predicts that net additional dwellings for the year to March 2018 will be around 218,000 homes, compared to 217,000 for the 12 months prior (model based on Energy Performance Certificates issued for newly-built properties). There is a clear regional divide in performance, with London set to fall by around 15%, the North likely to see annual growth of around 10%, and smaller increases in the South and Midlands.